On Feb. 3, Secretary of State Marco Rubio opened the channel of discord between the United States and Latin America for his first official visit as America’s foremost diplomat. He met with Panamanian president José Raúl Mulino to discuss how the United States and Panama intend to move forward with President Donald Trump’s demands regarding the Panama Canal.
Rubio’s message was clear: the United States will act if the status quo of the canal is maintained. He said this in line with President Trump’s plan to acquire the important center of trade. Rubio claimed that the United States was concerned about Chinese presence in the canal and believed that it may violate a 1999 treaty, in which Panama gained control of the Panama Canal if they kept the waterway neutral.
Despite his opposition to the acquisition of the Panama Canal, Mulino reported that his meeting with Secretary Rubio was “respectful.” Mulino said that Rubio made “no real threat or retaking the canal or the use of force.”
Mulino has stated that, in accordance with the expectations of President Trump and his administration, Panama will not renew their participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Additionally, though their intent to keep ownership of the canal holds steadfast, it is possible that Panama will get rid of the Hutchison Ports company’s operation of the canal. Hutchison Ports company is based in Hong Kong.
Dr. Brenna Armstrong, who is a political science professor at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette, weighed in on the discussion. Her research is primarily in Latin American politics and the intersection of the different branches of government, and her work focuses on gender and politics.
Armstrong provided background information on the diplomatic relationship between the United States and Panama. She stated, “So, the current political climate between the United States and Panama is kind of reflective of the overall political climate between most of Latin America and the US. Historically, we’ve been very involved in Latin America, but it’s never really been the kind of focus of the executive branch or the Secretary of State.”
She added, “I don’t think [Panama was] prepared for the United States government to attack a series of treaties we signed in the 70s, especially because the president who negotiated those treaties just died, like, it’s not like an old treaty. I think things are still very functional relationship.”
“I do think, though, that the Panamanian government is looking directly to Secretary of State, Rubio, and not to President Trump, to dictate what’s going to happen, because Rubio is the first Secretary of State to make his primary focus Latin America since 1921.”
Armstrong commented on how the U.S. relationship to Central America will affect immigration. She said, “If you’re someone who cares about, like integration, building the economies for Central America reduces the number of people who leave to come here, and we have seen a decline significantly, and the number of people like leaving for the southern border since Trump— President Trump was elected.”
When posed with the question of how the U.S. acquisition of the canal would affect the geopolitical world, Armstrong emphasized the severe monetary changes.
She stated, “Like, you can’t change how fast or slow locks fill, in a way that’s like, safe and functional. Mostly, that isn’t like, more, like, we could do it, but it would cost a lot of more money than anyone is willing to put into the canal.”
She also noted the significant change in policy regarding trade that would occur if the United States gained ownership over the canal. Because the U.S. is not bound by the same treaty stating neutrality, the country would have control over who is allowed to travel, how often and when.
Armstrong noted, “So, the idea of, like, we have control and can shut and open the canal as we would, like, please– which is the thing the Trump administration is accusing China of doing– because two of the main ports on the Pacific side of the canal are run by Hong Kong companies.”
Secretary Rubio faced opposition from protesting Panamanian citizens during his trip, some carrying flags that called him by name. The protestors marched in the capital and were stopped short of the presidential palace.
The Panama Canal is a major center of trade in Latin America. Although President Trump has not yet commented on Secretary Rubio’s visit, his response is crucial to how the countries will move forward.
Some fear that the withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative and other measures from China will not be enough. President Trump has expressed his desire to fully overtake the operations of the canal, so his reaction to the discussed cooperative measures is critical.