Mexico Manages Crime Surge After a Cartel Leader is Killed

On Feb. 22, the Mexican military achieved a victory in its war against the cartel system in an operation that assassinated Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes. Nicknamed “El Mencho,” he is the leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), based in the state of Jalisco along the Pacific coast. It has a presence in every Mexican state, making it one of the most powerful organizations of its kind.

However, the president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, faced new challenges when cartel violence across the country surged in the aftermath. The local airport in Vallarta, a major tourism city in Jalisco, was shut down, forcing flights to be cancelled, delayed or rerouted. Major highways were blockaded, while cars and buildings were set on fire. 

The U.S. Department of State issued a series of travel warnings to American tourists, especially those in Vallarta, to avoid unnecessary travel. Most restrictions were lifted by Feb 25.

Although the violence has mostly cooled off, internal power struggles and tensions remain. CJNG still has access to an illicit, profitable market for drugs and weapons. The biggest change is a lack of organization unless a new leader steps into El Mencho’s place. However, it also risks the cartel fracturing into smaller groups, making them more difficult to track.

Former president Felipe Calderón declared war on the cartels in 2006, soon after taking office. Over the years, various strategies have been tried, including assassinations, preventing civilian casualties to maintain public favor, and deterring cartel growth by improving job opportunities.

Sheinbaum’s policy shifted the focus toward intelligence gathering to disrupt criminal networks. Since November 2024, she’s taken a comprehensive approach to investigating the entire government for corruption. 

Of the 60 individuals who have been arrested so far in connection with the cartels, at least 18 have been convicted. This is a high success rate in Mexico, where corrupt politicians often avoid consequences by attempting to collude with the prosecution. However, even with major readjustments, it’s not clear whether Sheinbaum will be able to separate the government from the cartels long-term.

The Trump administration has forced itself into the situation, considering that Mexican cartels smuggle considerable amounts of synthetic fentanyl, methamphetamine, marijuana, cocaine and heroin into the U.S. Although the operation reportedly used U.S. intelligence services, Sheinbaum has repeatedly denied assistance from the U.S. military to manage the cartels since February 2025. 

She stated, “We can collaborate, that they can help us with information they have, but that we operate in our territory, that we do not accept any intervention by a foreign government.” Sheinbaum balances how much U.S. assistance the government can accept without damaging her own legitimacy or Mexico’s sovereignty.

One hallmark of Trump’s second term has been empowering the Department of Homeland Security to slow illegal immigration, deport anyone residing in the country illegally and end narcotrafficking. The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement reportedly detained about 60,000 individuals in September 2025, a steady rise since October 2024, while the majority of encounters along the border remain single adults from Mexico. 

In 2024, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency seized 9,950 kilograms of fentanyl. That’s less than the 2023 count, but high above the 4,528 kilograms seized in 2019. Although drug overdose deaths declined in 2024 compared to 2023, there are still a drastic number of lives taken each year.

On Feb. 20, 2025, Trump designated eight cartels across Latin America as foreign terrorist organizations, including CJNG. Four days after that announcement, the Department of State offered a $15 million reward for El Mencho’s arrest. Others include Tren de Aragua and Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13), which Trump called out during his 2024 presidential campaign as major growing threats to American citizens. 

Trump’s efforts in suppressing cartel violence had some success. On March 27, 2025, the administration arrested Henrry Josue Villatoro Santos, a top leader of MS-13 operations in the U.S., in Virginia. Additionally, the administration’s recent military actions deposed the authoritarian president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, in an effort to restrict the flow of drugs and illegal immigration into the U.S. 

However, U.S. involvement runs deeper. For example, before Trump’s second term, in July 2024, the U.S. detained the co-leaders of the rival Sinaloa Cartel, Joaquín Guzmán López and Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada García, in El Paso, Texas, on narcotrafficking charges. The Mexican government blamed the U.S. for the ensuing power vacuum and crime surge, which was analogous but more limited in scope compared to the current situation.

Although it’s difficult to measure the size of illicit industries and the impacts that policies have on them, it was projected that López and Zambada’s arrests didn’t have a significant impact. Given the precedent over the past 20 years, it’s unclear whether El Mencho’s death will make significant reductions either. It is feasible that narcotrafficking and gang violence could increase as the cartel factions have no one overseeing them.