The United States entered direct conflict with Iran on Feb. 28 over fears of Iran developing nuclear weapons, tiring of Iran’s persistent missile barrage on Israel and frustrations involving its proxy network of extremist groups across the Middle East.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on the same day along with several other government officials. Iran responded by launching an intense missile and drone barrage on Israel U.S. military bases across the region. By the time of writing, at least 61 U.S. and 2,000 Iranian military personnel have been killed.
The Assembly of Experts, its chief legislative and advisory body, named Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Khamenei’s son, as the new Supreme Leader. The regime is temporarily stabilized.
The humanitarian crisis is also increasing. Over 150,000 civilians have been displaced. Electricity and water access have been disrupted. Civilian infrastructure like neighborhoods, ports and schools have been caught in the missile attacks. Hospitals are being flooded with the wounded.
Iran has almost completely closed the Strait of Hormuz to all trade except Iran’s allies. The 20 mile gap traffics 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf into international waterways. It’s the best way to export oil from Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Despite Trump’s threats, Iran has maintained its position, and only allowed its own vessels to pass through to India, China and Japan.
Although the U.S. doesn’t get all of its fossil fuels from the Persian Gulf, blockading 36 million barrels from the international economy will impact everyone. Gas prices have risen approximately 50 cents per gallon in the U.S. and economies across Europe and the Middle East will likely contract. Forcing the strait open using armored convoys is the simplest solution, but still risky.
Defense secretary Pete Hegseth asserted on Mar. 19 that this conflict will not turn into another “forever war.” Instead, it has a clear aim on completely destroying Iran’s foreign military power, namely its nuclear and missile capacity as well as its navy. Ultimately, reshaping the entire government would also serve useful.
Aside from its deteriorating military, Iran is under economic strain. The inflation rate and food prices rose extraordinarily in 2025. Mass protests beginning on Dec. 28 ended in the government killing at least 2,500 civilians by Jan. 13. For Iran’s enemies, it suggests that the government is weak and at least a vocal minority of the public want large changes.
The fighting began with Operation Epic Fury, accompanied by Israel’s Roaring Lion, which struck strategic infrastructure across Iran. Both are continuations of Operations Midnight Hammer and Rising Lion in June 2025, which irreparably damaged Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Hegseth and independent sources concur that the U.S. has made much progress, and will when they are absolutely certain that Iran no longer poses a threat. Although Iran’s missile attacks have slowed, it’s difficult to determine whether they’re being strategic or lack the ability.
On Mar. 13, Trump noted that the conflict will end “when I feel it in my bones.” Trump relying on intuition to justify when the conflict will end signals that he might intend on unilaterally moving the goalposts until he’s personally satisfied.
This decision was not taken lightly, but actually the result of years of tension. In 2016, the Obama administration, leading a multinational effort, employed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, colloquially known in the U.S. as the Iran Nuclear Deal. It prevented Iran from developing nuclear weapons, amid concerns that they’d be used to strike Israel, in exchange for lifting certain economic sanctions.
Trump pulled the U.S. out of the agreement on May 18, 2018 and restored sanctions. He claimed that the deal was defunct since its inception, didn’t restrain Iran enough and that the powers who agreed to it sacrificed too much. U.S. diplomats attempted renegotiations throughout February 2026 to coerce Iran, but concluded that it would be impossible purely through amicable means.
It’s notable that this conflict appears to be a war in every way except name, and calling it such is incorrect based on Congressional law. As per, the 1973 War Powers Resolution, the president has the authority to wield the military against foreign belligerents for 60 days, although they should inform Congress beforehand if possible. After 60 days, the president must ask Congress to vote on whether to formally declare war. By technicality, the president can bypass Congress for another 30 days, provided a clear explanation that time is key to success.
It’s currently unclear whether Trump will ask Congress for a formal war declaration. With the approaching 2026 midterm elections, it would imply that it will be long and costly, and thus hurt the Republican Party’s chances at retaining Congressional majority. The U.S. has attempted regime changes around the globe at countless times since the early 1900s to varying degrees of success.
Since the 1950s, Iran has pursued nuclear weapons and regional a proxy network, aiming for the downfall of western democratic influence. Regime change today would have to be extremely careful, calculated and present a leader supported by the Iranian public. It’s too early to know whether the U.S. can destroy the Iranian power vacuum.